Serabi Cuts 2026 Gold Outlook as Coringa Permits Delay Fourth-Quarter Ramp-Up

Serabi Gold has cut its 2026 gold-production expectation to a level similar to its 2025 output of 44,169 ounces, abandoning prior guidance for more than 53,000 ounces after permitting delays at Coringa blocked the planned increase in fourth-quarter production. The revision removes the near-term output benefit that Serabi had expected from moving additional Coringa ore to its expanded Palito processing plant. 12

The company reported the change alongside third-quarter production of 11,008 ounces, down 9% from the corresponding period of 2025. Year-to-date output was approximately 34,000 ounces. While the revised outlook does not provide a precise annual target, matching the 2025 level would imply only about 10,000 ounces of production in the final quarter after the first nine months. The central issue is not processing capacity alone, but the outstanding approvals needed to transport and process additional material from Coringa. 12

That distinction matters for the investment case. Serabi has expanded the Palito plant, and its fourth ball mill is expected to raise annual processing capacity to 330,000 tonnes in 2027. But designed processing capacity cannot lift production if the mine supplying incremental ore is constrained by permits. The company said the Coringa approvals remained outstanding, preventing the intended fourth-quarter ramp-up and the processing of additional Coringa material at Palito. 2

The quarterly operating figures also show that the production shortfall is not solely a permitting story. Lower-than-expected grades at the Palito Complex weighed on the third-quarter result. Palito mined ore averaged 4.01 grams of gold per tonne during the period, against 6.29 grams per tonne a year earlier. Serabi described Palito’s year-to-date average grade of 4.90 grams per tonne as disappointing, although it expects an improvement in the fourth quarter as mine output increases from the G3 vein, where it says higher-volume and higher-grade blocks are available. 12

Coringa, by contrast, continued to show stronger ore quality. Average milled grades there were close to 8 grams per tonne in the third quarter, with a year-to-date milled grade of 7.74 grams per tonne. More than 23,000 ounces of Serabi’s roughly 34,000-ounce year-to-date production came from Coringa, underlining why the inability to execute its planned ramp-up has a material effect on the annual outlook. 13

The company’s revised production expectation therefore combines two pressures: lower grades at Palito reduced third-quarter output, while delayed Coringa permits have removed the expected fourth-quarter production lift. The latter is especially consequential because it limits Serabi’s ability to convert its expanded plant infrastructure into additional 2026 ounces.

Market reaction reflected the scale of the reset. Serabi shares fell 16% to 190 pence in Wednesday morning trading, down 35 pence from the previous close of 225 pence, according to a report on the announcement. 2 The move followed a guidance change that effectively reduces the company’s expected annual output by more than 8,800 ounces relative to the stated threshold of its former target, though the earlier guidance was for production above 53,000 ounces rather than exactly that figure.

Attention now turns to whether approvals at Coringa are secured in time to support the operational plan beyond 2026, and whether Palito’s anticipated grade improvement materialises in the final quarter. Serabi has said it will update production guidance when it reports third-quarter financial results in late November. Until then, the company’s expanded processing capacity remains a prospective advantage rather than a source of the 2026 growth it had planned. 12