Russia Eyes Bigger Role in Rare Earths
China | United States
Moscow possesses significant known reserves - the USGS estimates about 3.8 million tonnes, placing Russia fifth globally - but current output is tiny, roughly 2,500 metric tons in 2024 (about 0.64% of global production).
China remains dominant, holding about 44 million tonnes of deposits and controlling about 69% of global processing capacity, giving it decisive advantage in separation and downstream manufacture of high-strength magnets used in electronics, EVs and wind turbines.
Russian ministries claim far larger reserves (a cited 28.5 million tonnes across 15 metals), but analysts warn quantities, grades and accessible concentrations are opaque and likely uneven. Mining is relatively straightforward; refining, separation and building market links are the hard, capital- and technology-intensive steps where China excels.
Geopolitics complicates market access: sanctions and the Ukraine war may limit Western partners, pushing Russia toward China for investment and processing, though Moscow has signaled openness to foreign joint ventures. The road map will test whether Russia can convert resource potential into a competitive position in a strategically sensitive global supply chain.