Poland Led Record Q2 Central-Bank Gold Buying, Not China

Poland, not China, was the largest reported buyer in the record second quarter for central-bank gold demand. Central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2 2026, up 62.4% from a year earlier, and Poland accounted for 51 tonnes of that total, according to World Gold Council figures cited in the reports.12 China’s latest disclosed purchase was an August transaction, after the June quarter had ended. That makes China important evidence of continued official-sector demand, but not evidence that it led the Q2 surge.12

The distinction matters because the Q2 headline risks blending two different data sets and time periods into one conclusion. The quarterly data identify Poland as the largest reported buyer in the period. The Chinese reserve update records a 650,000-troy-ounce, or just-over-20-tonne, increase in August, described as the People’s Bank of China’s largest monthly addition since October 2023.2 The two developments point in the same broad direction for reserve demand, but they do not answer the same question.

The Q2 total was large enough to matter for the gold market. At 288.9 tonnes, it represented a record quarterly official-sector purchase figure in the supplied reports, with the year-on-year increase exceeding 60%.12 Poland’s 51-tonne addition therefore accounts for a meaningful portion of the disclosed quarterly total. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan and the Czech Republic also reported reserve increases, indicating that the reported buying was not confined to a single institution.2

China nevertheless remains a significant part of the follow-on demand story. Its August increase extended a run of rising reported holdings to 22 consecutive months. Reported Chinese gold holdings reached 76.73 million troy ounces at the end of August, from 76.08 million ounces a month earlier, equivalent to roughly 2,386 tonnes.2 The August increment was also slightly larger than July’s reported 640,000-ounce increase.2

That continuation should not be confused with a like-for-like measure of China’s contribution to the Q2 record. August is a post-quarter event, and the reports do not assign a Chinese purchase volume to the 288.9-tonne Q2 aggregate.12 For market participants, the stronger conclusion is narrower: Poland led the reported Q2 buying; China demonstrated that official Chinese accumulation continued into the following quarter.

The value of China’s holdings provides a further warning against equating reserve-value changes with physical purchases. The reported value of Chinese gold reserves rose to $350.08 billion in August from $306.35 billion in July, but the report says most of that rise reflected the higher gold price rather than the additional quantity acquired.2 China’s reported gold allocation was close to 10% of approximately $3.4 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves.2 The increase in dollar value is therefore not a measure of August buying volume.

There is also a limit to any ranking based on disclosed data. The reports note that central-bank gold holdings are partly based on official disclosures and that not all purchases are necessarily reported immediately.2 Poland can therefore be identified as the largest reported Q2 buyer, rather than conclusively the largest buyer of all actual flows. That qualification is particularly important in a market where reserve managers may disclose purchases on different schedules.

The attribution question sits alongside a separate near-term constraint on bullion: interest rates. Gold traded at $4,313.43 an ounce, up 1.2% on the day, after the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in three years, according to one report.1 That report said policymakers projected a 4.1% benchmark rate at the end of 2026, above the 3.8% projected in June, and described a firmer dollar and further tightening risk as counterweights to official-sector demand.1 Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, even if central banks continue to buy for reserve-management reasons.12

The reported purchases thus offer support for the view that official demand has remained substantial, but they do not justify treating every new Chinese disclosure as an explanation for the prior quarter’s record. Poland led the reported Q2 data; China’s August purchase tests whether that official-sector demand persisted beyond the quarter. The next measurable catalyst is the next reserve disclosure from China and the next quarterly breakdown of reported central-bank buying, which should show whether the Q2 concentration in Poland broadens or fades.12