MP Materials' Rise Faces Refining and Execution Tests

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) has surged about 358% from the end of 2024 through Oct. 3, 2025, driven by U.S. reshoring momentum and the strategic importance of neodymium‑based magnets for EVs, drones and consumer electronics.

China halted rare‑earth exports to the U.S. in April, accelerating government and industry efforts to rebuild domestic supply chains. The Department of Defense has partnered with MP Materials to fund a new magnet production site dubbed the 10x Facility and agreed to a 10‑year purchase commitment, including a guaranteed minimum price of $110 per kilogram for neodymium‑praseodymium (NdPr). MP projects about 10,000 kg/year from the site, roughly $1.1 billion annually at that price.

MP also announced a magnet recycling agreement with Apple, with shipments expected from 2027. However, the company’s Mountain Pass operation has limited refining capacity: the planned 10x Facility focuses on magnet manufacturing, not large‑scale ore refining. Refining rare earths is chemically intensive and pollution‑sensitive, making a sizable California refinery difficult under current regulatory constraints. That gap means dependence on imported refined material could persist.

At a market cap north of $12.6 billion and roughly 48× trailing sales, the stock prices in optimistic execution of DoD projects and Apple recycling. Investors should monitor refinery capacity, permitting and delivery milestones before increasing exposure.