Geopolitical Storms and ETF Frenzy Propel Gold Toward Uncharted Peaks

Tensions in the Persian Gulf ignite safe-haven flows as Iran vows decisive retaliation against massing US naval forces, while stalled Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks underscore unrelenting global flashpoints. These developments amplify gold's allure, reversing early February's correction and pushing spot prices up 0.91% to $5042.33, with a session high of $5064.17.[1][7][9] Investors, spooked by flash S&P PMI data revealing the worst US services and manufacturing weakness in 10 months, flock to the metal, overriding softer Q4 GDP growth of 1.4%.[7][11]

Economic crosswinds favor gold as US data disappoints. Weak PMI figures signal slowing growth, clashing with steady GDP and reigniting bets on Federal Reserve easing despite real yields' subtle pressures. President Trump's public barbs at Fed Chair Powell earlier fueled haven bids, eroding confidence in policy predictability and lifting gold above $5000 yet again.[6][7] This macroeconomic ambiguity, paired with DXY's relative calm amid Treasury yield wobbles, underpins the rebound from multi-week lows post-China's Lunar New Year trading halt.[1]

Investor psychology swings bullish, with global gold ETFs shattering records: January saw $19 billion inflows, the highest monthly total ever, ballooning assets under management to $669 billion and holdings to 4145 tonnes. Western investors, absent for three years, piled in with 240 tonnes via North American and European ETFs, marking a seismic shift from supply to demand absorption. Even Chinese ETFs notched their second-best month, pushing AUM to $36 billion, while stablecoin giant Tether added 6 tonnes in January alone.[2][4][6][8] Momentum indicators hold firm, gold respecting its 50-day moving average despite prior froth.[1]

Institutional forces solidify the uptrend. Central banks, led by emerging markets, bought 328 tonnes in December 2025, maintaining elevated levels versus pre-2022 norms as de-dollarization accelerates. Scotiabank highlights this alongside ETF surges and geopolitics as core drivers, projecting sustained rally legs toward $6500 by year-end per BMO. Comex speculators trimmed net longs but their $46 billion stake signals enduring conviction amid de-risking.[1][3][4] India's $100 premium post-February dip now draws imports, tightening physical supply.[1] Together, these dynamics explain gold's resilience, positioning it for another weekly record close.