BRE Advances Amargosa Bauxite Amid Share Price Volatility

Brazilian Rare Earths Limited (ASX: BRE) has made significant strides in its development pipeline, as detailed in its December 2025 quarterly report released late January 2026. The standout development is the Amargosa Bauxite Project scoping study, outlining a low-cost, 5 Mtpa direct-ship-bauxite export operation backed by a massive JORC resource of 568 Mt, including 98 Mt of direct-ship ore. This project boasts impressive economics, with annual EBITDA around US$102 million and an after-tax NPV8 of US$630 million, supported by shallow mineralization, efficient road logistics, and expansion potential via future rail integration. BRE is also pushing a de-merger of Amargosa for mid-2026, having submitted ASX listing materials to unlock value for shareholders.

On the rare earths front, BRE secured a binding 10-year offtake agreement with Carester for heavy rare earth concentrate (DyTb), alongside appointing a new CFO to bolster execution. Financially, the company ended the quarter with A$162.4 million in cash, bolstered by an October 2025 placement raising A$120 million at A$4.68 per share from 25.6 million shares. These catalysts have driven trading activity, with average weekly volume reflecting investor interest, though a director's recent indirect shareholding increase via options signals internal confidence.

Share price movements show volatility, currently at AU$3.68, down 3.66% over the past month and 33.33% in three months, from a 52-week high of AU$6.02. Despite a strong 67.27% yearly gain, recent 7-day drop of 10.5% underscores short-term pressure, with weekly volatility at 8.8% stable versus the metals sector. Market sentiment leans cautious amid broader rare earth supply dynamics, but Ord Minnett recently lifted its price target by 7.1% to A$7.50, viewing the updates positively. Analyst updates highlight the bauxite-rare earth dual asset strategy as a differentiator, though first production at Amargosa is eyed for 2029 pending approvals.

In the past few months, BRE's price has been influenced by larger events like China's repeated 2025 export restrictions on rare earths to the EU, spotlighting alternative suppliers and boosting Brazil's strategic appeal. Domestic bauxite market fluctuations and global critical minerals demand tied to EV and green tech have added tailwinds, while broader ASX metals sector rotations contributed to the three-month dip.