Antimony Supply Crunch Draws ASX Juniors Toward U.S. Defense Needs

China controls roughly 48% of global antimony raw material supply and more than 90% of refined product. A recent Chinese export ban has driven prices almost fivefold since early 2024, exposing U.S. vulnerability: the only domestic smelter in Montana relies on imported ore. U.S. defense demand is urgent — antimony is used in small-arms ammunition, stabilisers for propellants, night-vision and infrared devices, and certain electronic and solar components — making secure supply chains a strategic priority. Several ASX-listed exploration teams are advancing projects in Alaska and Nevada, with some drill intercepts reporting high grades (occasional assays above 20% Sb). High grades are promising, but translating intercepts into reliable concentrate production requires metallurgy testing, permitting, financing, and processing-plant construction. Government visits and executive statements have raised expectations, yet promotional bias exists where companies advertise on industry outlets; off-take contracts and federal funding are not guaranteed. If projects such as those in Alaska or Nevada advance quickly, the U.S. could see its first domestic antimony production in over three decades, diversifying supply away from China, Russia, and Tajikistan. Still, timelines, environmental hurdles, and scale-up risks mean meaningful supply-chain resilience is not immediate.